中美貿易戰中的 赴美留學 Sino-US Trade War’s Impact on Studying in the USA

       2019年6月20日

　　為了更好地增強家校溝通，使家長能夠幫助學校更好地成長，同時也為了提高家長和孩子的溝通能力，增進親子關系，上海宏潤博源學校校方和家校聯合會計劃開展家長沙龍。本學年于6月6日和6月20日下午試運行兩次，下學年開始每月月末一次。

　　本學年的兩次沙龍都由我校外方校長 Christopher Moses 主講，第一次的主題是“規劃指導”(什么是規劃指導，我們是怎么做的);第二次的主題是“中美貿易戰中的赴美留學”。Chris校長對美國政治體系及其歷史發展有深刻認識，一起來看一下專業的美國人士如何看待特朗普發起的貿易戰以及這種形勢下的赴美留學。

　　Good afternoon, parents.

　　各位家長下午好，

　　Today I’ve been asked to share some thoughts about the current situation involving US-China relations. I’m certainly not an expert, but I hope I can offer some perspectives and context that can help better frame the issue. I know that things may seem uncertain, which is all the more reason to reassure ourselves with clarity about what we do know.

　　今天我想談談中美關系的現狀。雖然我不是這方面的專家，但是我希望我今天提供的觀點和背景信息可以幫助大家更好地理解這個問題。雖然現在局勢還不明朗，存在一些不確定性，但是我們更應該用我們知道的，已經確定的東西來安定我們的心神。

　　I will divide my comments into two parts:

　　今天我主要講兩部分內容。

　　the first will offer some context as to the US political environment, and considerations that make lead the current administration to step back from its current approach and become more open to constructive negotiation.

　　第一部分，我想講一下有關美國政治環境的大背景以及一些會迫使美國執政當局放棄現在的對抗性策略，采取更加開放的有建設性的談判策略的考量因素。

　　Second, I want to speak more specifically to issues related to education.

　　第二部分，我想專門談一下中美貿易戰對赴美留學的影響。

　　First, then: I’m far from alone in considering the Trump administration to be anomalous in the recent history of the United States. Regardless of what one thinks of the man as a person, and I will refrain from offering my own views (since my grandmother told me, if you don’t have anything nice to say, you shouldn’t say anything at all) – the actual policies of his administration challenge basic and longstanding approaches of his Republican party (and the larger corporations and wealthier individuals it tends to represent).

　　首先，很多美國人都跟我一樣，認為特朗普政府的出現是美國近代歷史上的異常事件。不管大家怎么評價特朗普這個人，我在這兒就不對他這個人作出評價了(因為我祖母跟我說過，如果你沒有什么好聽的話說，就什么都別說了)。特朗普政府現在推行的政策挑戰了他所屬的共和黨以及共和黨所代表的大企業和大財團一直以來秉承的基本策略。

　　Indeed, for generations that party has been guided by an ideology of free trade and limited government intervention in the market.

　　實際上，共和黨一直以來奉行的理念是支持自由貿易，限制政府干預市場。

　　This means that while there is a broad recognition amongst political leaders that the US-China relationship must continue to evolve, there is far from unified support about Trump’s policies or his approach – using tariffs and supposedly security-based justifications to limit certain sectors of trade.

　　這也意味著許多美國領導人都認為中美關系應當持續發展，而不是一邊倒地支持特朗普的政策和策略，即利用關稅或以國家安全為由限制一些領域的貿易。

　　Even more difficult for Trump, the same bravado that he has used with China has also been directed toward some of the closest and longest-standing allies of the US: threats to Japan and the EU about car production, battles with Canada and Mexico over NAFTA, and comments that challenge aspects of Great Britain’s own trade practices (to name just a few). Just last week, Trump’s further threats to use tariffs against Mexico in response to immigration across the US’s southern border led to a broad and open rebuke from Republicans in Congress – who are very sensitive to corporation’s frustrations with Trump’s policies. They forced his hand, causing him quickly to announce a “great deal” and save face.

　　特朗普的處境比較艱難，他不但在處理中美關系時虛張聲勢和冒進，在對待美國長期以來的盟友國時亦是如此，比如：在汽車制造方面威脅日本和歐盟，在北美自由貿易協定上與加拿大和墨西哥產生爭執，發出挑戰英國國家貿易政策的評論等。上周，在對待墨西哥移民從美國南部邊境進入美國的問題上，特朗普用進一步提高關稅威脅墨西哥，這一舉措在國會上遭到共和黨人廣泛公開的反對。共和黨及其所代表的企業和利益集團對特朗普政府讓人失望的政策非常敏感。他們給特朗普施加壓力，導致他匆匆宣布達成了"不錯的交易“，為挽回顏面，草草收場。

　　So, there is tension in Trump’s relationship with his own party, and also with international allies – which means that actually trying to manage the trade war he has provoked becomes much harder, as he is acting in isolation and with uncertain support. Further, he is hampered by the fact that he has proposed only a very vague endgame regards his actions, citing the trade deficit and amorphous concerns about “fairness.”

　　由此也不難看出，特朗普與其所屬的共和黨以及國際盟友的關系都很緊張。這也意味著，他想控制自己挑起的貿易戰會更加艱難，因為他現在是光桿司令，得不到確定的支持。此外，他只是以貿易逆差，以及對于“貿易公平”的含糊的擔心為由來支持自己的行為，但并沒有明確表明他想通過這些行為來實現怎樣的結果，這本身也會限制他的行為。

　　To a larger extent, he is trapped by a certain nostalgia for a great age of manufacturing which will never return and, as sensible commentators point out, ended not because of trade with China, but as a result of technological change and automation. Trump’s view of economics and trade as a zero-sum game appeals to certain elements of the US populous, but the mounting costs of the trade war, and further and more severe consequences, may undermine even that base of support.

　　很大程度上，特朗普陷入了一種對美國過去制造業蓬勃發展的美好時代的懷戀，但這個時代不會逆歷史趨勢重現。正如一些明智的社評人員所說的那樣，這個時代的終結不是因為與中國的貿易，而是因為科技的發展和自動化。特朗普認為經濟和貿易是一場“零和”游戲的觀點對于部分美國人確實有吸引力，但是貿易戰帶來成本攀升，以及接下來更嚴重的后果，可能會從根本上削弱這部分人對特朗普的支持。

　　Trump has enjoyed a sort of economic honeymoon in the first years of his presidency, though many longer-term indicators (well beyond the trade war) suggest that the US economy will face greater challenges in the near future. The massive tax cuts passed early in his administration served as a sort of stimulus for increased corporate profits and buoyed the stock market, but other persistent concerns – wage stagnation, healthcare costs, affordable housing, student loan debt, and the like, still remain.

　　特郎普剛上臺的兩三年里，美國經濟確實有所改善，但是許多長期指標(超越暫時的貿易戰)表明美國經濟將會在不久的將來面臨更大的挑戰。特朗普上臺之初大幅削減稅收，確實刺激了美國企業利益的增長，使股市上浮，但是長期以來存在的問題如工資停滯、醫療成本、經濟適用房、學生貸款債務等問題依然存在。

　　This fall, Congress will also need to pass a budget and increase the debt ceiling so that the US can continue to operate—yet there is little suggestion that an agreement will be reached easily. This could lead to another government shutdown and unsettle both bond and equities markets, with serious consequences throughout the economy.

　　今年秋季，美國國會需要再通過一個預算提案，提升債務的上限，以美國政府可以正常運行。不過，目前來看，這個提案沒那么容易通過。這也可能導致美國政府再次關門，使證劵和股權市場再次動蕩，嚴重影響美國經濟。

　　Also, this fall will also present two further challenges for Trump’s economic policies.

　　今年秋季，特朗普政府的經濟政策還將面臨兩大挑戰。

　　First, the agricultural sector will be reckoning with losses (and trying to recoup subsidies from the government) because of its inability to sell to China. While not a major part of the overall US economy, farmers – and the midwestern states in which they live – have a hugely outsized political influence (as a result of the fact that seats in the powerful Senate, or upper house of Congress, are allocated by state and not by population).

　　首先，農業部將會計算自己的損失，并且試圖從政府那里獲得補貼，因為特朗普政府的政策限制了農產品出口中國。雖說農業在美國整體經濟中的占比不大，但是農民，以及他們所在的中西部諸州對美國政治有非常大的影響，因為參議院的席位，也就是美國國會的上議院的席位，不是按照每個州的人數決定席位的，而是每個州都有固定的席位。

　　Worse, many of those farmers have also been hampered this season by excessive rain this spring, limiting their crops. When their debt comes due and they also must plan for next year’s growing season, considerable pressure will mount on the Trump administration to normalize markets.

　　此外，??由于今年春季降雨過多，農作物產量受到影響，這也將加劇農民面臨的困境。當他們需要還賬，且需要為來年的耕種做準的時候，他們會向特朗普政府施加很大的壓力，使貿易正常化。

　　Second, the Christmas holiday shopping season represents the largest outlay of consumer spending in the US, and this year, particularly if additional tariffs are enacted, Americans will face noticeably higher prices as manufacturers, importers and retailers cover their increased costs.

　　其次，圣誕節購物季是美國消費者集中消費較多的時候。今年，尤其是若關稅再有額外增加的話，美國民眾將會明顯感受到物價上漲，因為制造商，進口商和零售商會提高售價，彌補成本的增加。

　　Trump has been trying to pressure the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to continue an economy followed by cheap borrowing, but even if they bow to his pressure (or respond to a weakening economy) they face a conundrum: first, they will be less equipped to deal with inflationary pressures caused by rising prices due to tariffs (as well and the potential on increased fuel costs if instability increases with Iran and other Gulf countries) on the one hand, and have less leeway for stimulating economic spending if a more severe downturn does materialize.

　　特朗普試圖向美聯儲施壓讓其降息，以通過低息借貸繼續刺激經濟，但是即使美聯儲屈服于特朗普的壓力，或者對經濟下行作出反應，他們依然面臨一個難題：一方面，額外的關稅，伊朗以及其它海灣國家的局勢不穩定可能導致的油價上漲，都會進一步導致物價上漲，若美聯儲現在降息，將無法有效地應對物價上漲帶來的通貨膨脹壓力;另一方面，若更嚴重的經濟下行出現的時候，利率上留出的刺激消費的余地也將會很少。

　　Which is all to say, more broadly, Trump faces a number of challenges, both foreign and domestic, well beyond relations with China. Given the poor track record the administration has when focused on any one of these issues, the possibility of having to juggle multiple of them has the potential to further exacerbate its ineffectual approaches.

　　也就是說，從更廣泛的角度來看，特朗普面臨著國內外一系列挑戰，遠不止是和中國的關系這一個方面。鑒于特朗普政府在集中處理某一個問題時的糟糕表現來看，他若想同時周旋處理這么多問題，只能會增加其失敗的可能性。

　　Trump also will have to confront the challenges presented by his re-election bid in the next year, which will make him all the more vulnerable to a weakening economy. Of course, his ability to spark outrage will remain a constant theme, and such instability does not lead to an optimal environment for negotiation or strategic action.

　　此外，特朗普還需要面對明年再次參選所帶來的挑戰，目前美國疲軟的經濟也對他很不利。當然， 他可能會繼續煽動部分民眾的憤怒情緒，不過，這樣的不穩定性對形成良好的談判和戰略決策環境無益。

　　Ideally, though, wiser and more sensible advice will be taken if mounting pressures force Trump to confront the costs of his economic policies, particularly with regards to tariffs – and this isn’t even considering measures China may take to stimulate changes in the US position.

　　比較理想的情況是，不斷增加的內外部壓力迫使特朗普直面他的經濟政策(尤其是增加關稅)所造成的損失，采取理性和明智的建議。不過，這個壓力還沒有算上中國政府在應對貿易戰時所采取的措施給美國施加的壓力。

　　I loathe to make specific predictions, but my overall view is that the consequences of Trump’s actions will begin to take a toll on the US, making the trade war a focus of greater domestic discontent, amplified by the frustrations of US corporations for whom China is an essential market.

　　我不喜歡對未來妄下斷言，但是我的主要觀點是特朗普的行為較后還是會由美國民眾來買單，美國民眾也會逐漸感受到這一點。特朗普挑起的貿易戰會加劇美國民眾的不滿，以中國為主要市場的美國企業對特朗普政府的失望，更會加劇這種不滿。

　　Now, what does all this mean for international education in China, and for students who are considering further studies in the US?

　　那么這樣的形勢對于中國的國際教育，尤其是考慮到美國留學的中國學生意味著什么呢?

　　Right now, I don’t sense any major shifts in the possibilities and opportunities available to students. While there have been stories about increased difficulties in securing visas, my sense is that these are far more the exception than the rule. And from every verifiable source I’ve heard, there has been no change to US policies – and by far, US college and universities have a great deal at stake if they faced challenges in recruiting end enrolling Chinese students.

　　目前，我并沒有感覺到中國學生去美國留學的可能性和機會有什么大的改變。盡管有人說去美國留學的簽證難拿到了，但我認為這只是個別事件，而不是規定和政策上有什么改變。我所了解的可靠消息來源都表明，美國留學簽證政策并沒有發生改變。此外，如果美國學院和大學在招收中國學生方面遇到阻礙，這些學校也會受到很大影響。

　　Whatever drop in interest may take place will be a challenge for many schools who have become structurally reliant on tuition dollars from overseas, and they will exert any and all possible pressure to keep international student enrollment at current levels.

　　無論是什么原因導致中國學生到美國留學的興趣降低都會對美國的一些從結構上依賴留學生的學費的學校產生較大影響，這些學校會想辦法，甚至是想盡辦法一切辦法向政府施加壓力，使國際生的錄取比率維持在現有水平。

　　If colleges and universities do face declining applications, they will work all the harder at recruitment, and one upside may be that they are more generous with admissions decisions in order to hedge any concerns about yield.

　　如果美國的學院和大學面臨國際生申請人數下降的情況，他們會在招生方面更加努力。可能還會有個好處，他們會在決定是否錄取時更加慷慨，以對沖錄取人數不足的情況。

　　As importantly, despite perceptions about the political climate in the US, educational institutions value openness and diversity, and want to provide a welcoming and supportive home for their students. I’ve not heard or read of any concerns whatsoever for Chinese students in the US.

　　同樣重要的是，不管大家如何看待美國的政治氣候，美國的大學都非常重視開放性和多樣性，致力于給學生們營造一個熱烈歡迎的，提供支持的，像家一樣的環境。我暫時還沒有聽到或者讀到過當前中美形勢會影響中國學生到美國留學的消息。

　　It’s also worth noting that the value of an international or English-language-based education remains extremely strong, regardless of any issues between the US and China—the value of a US diploma is not limited to any one national context. Further, the time horizon for education stretches well beyond what will hopefully be a one-year Trump presidency, or the current trade dispute.

　　值得一提的是，無論中美之間的問題如何，國際教育或者是以英語為主要語言的教育的價值依然很高，獲得美國學位的價值并不會局限在美國這一個國家的范圍里。另外，好的教育所帶來的價值是終身的，時間跨度上會遠遠會超過特朗普剩下的或許是僅有的一年任期，也遠遠超過暫時的中美貿易爭端。

　　Our own relationship with GIA remains as strong as ever, and they are fully committed to our partnership and to their operations in China.

　　我們與美國GIA的合作關系和往常一樣十分緊密牢固，他們一直都在全力為我們提供支持，也在努力推進在中國的其它項目。

　　Considering all of this, I reflect on the sagely advice of an American who is quite astute when it comes to economic trends and the value of investment – Warren Buffet, whose advice I’ve always valued for my own decision making.

　　鑒于以上思考，我較后想分享一下美國智者沃倫巴菲特的建議，他在判斷經濟趨勢和投資價值方面非常敏銳。 我在做決定時也經常會參考他的建議。

　　Buffet remarks “In short, bad news is an investor's best friend.” Current uncertainty is an advantage to those with determination and clear goals. As he continues: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

　　巴菲特曾經說過：“簡而言之，壞消息是投資者的朋友。”現在的不確定性對于有著清晰目標和堅定意志的人意味著機會和優勢。他還說：“當別人都貪婪的時候你應該感到害怕，當別人感到害怕的時候你應該貪婪。

　　While I don’t exactly mean to endorse greed, I do mean to suggest that with pragmatic resolve, there are advantages to persevering with opportunities when others restrained by fear.

　　當然，我并不是說人要貪婪。我只是想說只要有務實的決心，當其他人受到恐懼的束縛時，你若堅持抓住機會是可以享有優勢，占有先機的。

　　Even if things might get a bit more challenging before they get better, the pressures all nations face to ensure prosperity and stability sustained by an integrated global economy are much more likely to prevail.

　　即使情況在好轉之前可能會面一些挑戰，但所有國家都面臨著繁榮與穩定的壓力，而這種繁榮與穩定是由全球經濟一體化所支撐的，這種一體化的繁榮和穩定也會贏得較后勝利。

　　Having students who are knowledgeable of and familiar with the world’s two largest economies will certainly create an opportunity for their great future success.

　　擁有了解和熟悉世界上較大的兩個經濟體的學生，肯定會為兩個國家未來的巨大成功創造機會。留學交流是符合兩國的共同利益的。